Bulgaria offshore wind factsheet

This factsheet outlines the latest developments for offshore wind in Bulgaria. For more detailed information, please check the most recent publications on the website.

Potential

Offshore wind power presents a promising opportunity for renewable energy and can make a significant contribution to Bulgaria’s energy mix. An assessment by the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD) has evaluated the technical potential of both fixed and floating offshore wind turbines within the EEZ and the suitable deployment areas based on various criteria.

CSD estimates that Bulgaria’s technical potential for offshore wind in the Black Sea is approximately 116 GW, to be realised through 26 GW of mature bottom-fixed technology and 90 GW through floating power plants. Despite the higher cost of offshore wind compared to other renewables, the unit cost of electricity generated by bottom-anchored plants is around EUR 90 per megawatt-hour (MWh), which is likely to be competitive with average electricity market prices over the next decade. During periods of peak demand, average day-ahead electricity prices have already reached EUR 100/MWh (and much higher during the actual peak hours). Annual average prices are forecast to be around EUR 70/MWh in 2025 and projected to be around EUR 85-90/MWh by 2030. Due to the considerably capital intensity of investments in floating installations in sea depths beyond 60m, the average cost per unit of electricity produced is estimated to be in the range of EUR 120-158/MWh.

The study employed GIS and the Global Wind Atlas to evaluate the entire geographic area within the boundaries of the Bulgarian EEZ, applying various exclusion filters to estimate the gross potential resource. These filters excluded areas with wind speeds below 7 m/s at a height of 150 m. The identification of technically viable locations for fixed foundation offshore wind considered average wind speeds exceeding 7 m/s and water depths less than 60 m, while floating wind energy was considered for water depths ranging from 60 m to 1,000 m. Additional restrictions on the resulting geographic area were factored in including conflicting uses such as security and logistical concerns, environmental protection, and the presence of man-made objects like undersea cables, pipelines, or archaeological artefacts and coral reefs.

Figure 1. Offshore wind potential in Bulgaria

Source: Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD) based on Global Wind Atlas data.

 Regulatory framework

Bulgaria has yet to adopt a special legislative framework for offshore wind. The passing of the Offshore Wind Energy Act at first reading in Bulgaria was met with great expectations from investors, but also with fierce politically driven protests. The tourism and fishing industries, as well as some environmental groups reacted negatively to the legislative initiative, expressing concerns that wind turbines would be built in fishing areas, that the sight of them on the horizon would deter tourists from coming to the Black Sea, and that they would harm local fish and bird populations.

Although their concerns are largely unfounded, the popular backlash against the Law highlights the need for a more sophisticated awareness raising campaign to dispel common myths about offshore wind energy and help Bulgarian society understand what the socio-economic benefits are, as well as the available strategies for mitigating environmental and other risks related to offshore wind projects. The Bulgarian parliament has so far failed to effectively communicate the benefits of offshore wind, allowing misinformation to spread. The period between the two readings of the law, ideally used to address the concerns of different stakeholders, has not included a broad societal discussion of the proposed regulatory framework. In addition, Bulgaria’s ongoing political instability has prevented further constructive dialogue and action, blocking the passage of the Law at second reading

The Renewable Energy in Maritime Spaces Act should clearly define the duties and responsibilities of all public authorities, which have specific relevant competencies related to offshore wind. Тo better coordinate all activities related to offshore wind projects and reduce bureaucratic hurdles for investors a cross-institutional authority should be appointed, for example as permanent advisory body of the Council of Ministers with dedicated administrative staff with relevant expertise to manage the different stages of each projects.

Figure 2. Site-development Models in the Proposed Concept for Offshore Energy Legislation in Bulgaria

Source: Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD).

The regulatory framework should include a specific process for site mapping for offshore wind priority zones through a tendering process or an open-door procedure, whereby prospective investors can pre-selected areas for development. In the case of the former, the government takes responsibility for assessing the wind potential of areas in the country’s EEZ, as well as the potential environmental and socio-economic impacts, linked to the deployment process and then auctions off the selected areas. In the open-door Auctioning, permitting and licensing procedures approach, developers identify areas for offshore wind development and then propose these areas to the government in the hope of obtaining permission to develop them.

Any government action in the sector should be established on evidence-based analysis of the offshore wind energy potential in national waters to align the realistic short, medium and long-term targets for new capacity additions, considering different constraints such as power transmission network limitations, conflicts with environmental zones, marine traffic routes and competing economic activities. The analysis should be reflected in all relevant strategic documents.

Maritime spatial planning

The Minister of Regional Development and Public Works oversees maritime spatial planning activities, coordinating the development and implementation of the Maritime Spatial Plan. This plan, extending until 2035, seeks to assess the compatibility of economic, archaeological, and other activities with ecosystems, geological and hydrogeological characteristics, and cultural and historical heritage. Scheduled for revision every decade, it may be updated sooner in response to significant socio-economic changes. However, the Bulgarian government faced delays in adopting the current version of the plan, finalizing it in the spring of 2023. Notably, the latest version of the plan, as adopted, excludes offshore wind energy development activities and fails to designate specific areas for projects. To address this, an updated version of the Bulgarian Maritime Spatial Plan should incorporate priority areas for offshore wind development.

Simultaneously, the proposed Offshore Energy Site Development Plan, outlined in the Draft Offshore Renewable Energy Act for Bulgaria, should allocate reserved areas for commercial-scale concessions. The Black Sea, as outlined in the National Marine Spatial Plan, exhibits limited biodiversity, especially in its central regions. Protected areas under the Biodiversity Act, encompassing various species along the adjacent coastal areas, have been designated along the Eastern European migration route passing over the Bulgarian coast and marine territories. Consequently, these coastal sites are subject to strict restrictions on investment activities to preserve biodiversity. To avoid conflicts between planning instruments, ensuring a harmonized approach to offshore wind development is crucial, incorporating designated areas into updated maritime spatial planning frameworks.

Environmental co-existence

The social acceptance of offshore wind energy investments depends on the coexistence of these projects with ecological, economic, and societal interests. Investments in offshore wind energy facilities must assess the impact on species, as required by the EU Nature Directives, to prevent potential risks such as death or injury, disturbance during breeding, rearing, hibernation, and migration, or the deterioration or destruction of breeding sites or resting places of protected species.

However, the negative impact on biodiversity can sometimes be mitigated, as demonstrated by Bulgaria’s 15 years of experience with onshore wind development. The assessment of significance should be done on a case-by case basis and consider the species and habitats potentially affected, including population size, distribution, range, reproductive strategy, and lifespan. Wind risk assessment maps should be used to identify areas of importance to birds that should be avoided or approached with caution by wind energy developers. The potential impact on bird populations should be considered during the investment decision process to avoid negative consequences for the wind farm’s profitability which could be diminished if a systemic suspension of the operation of the park becomes necessary to reduce the risk of collision of birds with turbines. Although research on bird migration, nesting, and feeding on Bulgarian territory has focused on onshore zones, additional in-depth impact assessment is vital for locating offshore wind energy sites. The latest Ornithological Monitoring in the Integrated System for Protection of Birds in the highly dense-situated wind parks of Kaliakra (close to the most promising offshore wind areas in the North-East part of the country) found no effect on sensitive bird species using migratory upward airflows during the 5-years monitoring of seasonal migration periods.

Grid and infrastructure development

The successful implementation of offshore wind projects heavily relies on the presence of the corresponding infrastructure. To establish any new project, it is crucial to connect it to a high voltage transmission grid. In the north-eastern part of Bulgaria, the substations at Dobrudzha (located approximately 50 km from the shore) and Varna (about 70 km away) offer possible transmission injection points. Furthermore, a 440 kV substation situated near Shabla (15 km away from the shore) is currently under development. In the Southern part of the Bulgarian Black Sea, the substation at Burgas provides a viable connection option as well. Initial analysis and consultations with experts from the TSO suggest that the national transmission grid has the capacity to accommodate up to 4 GW in new energy projects in the area. The Bulgarian government plans to fully digitise the national high and medium voltage network in the latest version of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP).

This initiative will expand the interconnection capacity with neighbouring countries by an additional 200 MW, allowing investors to sell electricity from renewable energy sources outside the country on power exchanges. The intricate process of acquiring permits and approvals for grid connections poses a significant challenge to offshore wind energy development in Bulgaria. Addressing this challenge requires adopting the renewable energy resource zone planning concept, a strategic tool for mapping areas designated for transmission development in support of renewable energy generation. This approach streamlines plant connection assessments during the investment planning phase, allowing for the installation of necessary transmission infrastructure during wind park construction. Port infrastructure also plays a pivotal role, facilitating the storage, unloading, and equipment installation processes. To optimise construction processes and minimise costs, assembling turbines at the nearest port, thereby avoiding seasonal weather limitations, is recommended. Operational ports can serve as bases for equipment storage and maintenance, necessitating specific criteria such as high load capacity, deep seaport design, and adequate storage and assembly areas. Currently, Bulgaria’s main ports, Varna and Burgas, primarily support cargo delivery and shipment.

To unlock Bulgaria’s offshore wind energy potential, establishing a fair cost allocation between network and power plant operators for offshore grid infrastructure construction is paramount. This requires introducing a legislative framework that encourages offshore energy development, assigning onshore and offshore grid planning responsibility to the national Transmission System Operator (TSO) in alignment with offshore wind site development plans.

Incorporating the EU’s recent announcement on cross-border offshore grid corridors into current grid development planning is essential. To overcome the challenges of slow grid development in Bulgaria, a developer-led model for offshore infrastructure provision is recommended. Concession operators should build the necessary network infrastructure at their own expense, adhering to technological parameters and TSO guidelines. The TSO retains the right to purchase the offshore network infrastructure at a fair cost, necessitating clear compensation rules in legislative documents