Poland offshore wind factsheet

This factsheet outlines the latest developments for offshore wind in Poland. For more detailed information, please check the most recent publications on the website.
Potential
Poland benefits from a 770 km long and relatively straight coastline along the Baltic Sea, providing a vast territorial sea area of 8 700 km². Additionally, its EEZ extends over 30 000 km2.
The Instrat Foundation estimated a potential deployment of up to 31.2 GW38, while reports by McKinsey&Company and the Polish Wind Energy Association (PWEA) assessed the potential at 45 GW and 33 GW, respectively. Achieving these numbers would require appropriate changes in spatial planning and regulations. The PWEA report provides a more detailed preliminary analysis of technical conditions and costs, suggesting that some later additions may need to utilize floating technology, resulting in a higher relative Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). Challenges such as spatial conflicts with fisheries, maritime military training areas, and a negative influence on landscape has also been identified.
In general, Poland has sufficient marine areas with high potential to accommodate ambitious additions of new offshore power until at least the early 2040s. Limitations and delays are likely to arise from other factors, including the electricity demand, flexibility of the Polish power system, investment costs, or competition from other renewables, and nuclear power. However, emerging trends such as the decarbonization of industry and transport through green hydrogen may lead to the utilisation of additional locations currently deemed less attractive.
Regulatory framework
The offshore wind energy projects in Poland have faced significant delays of their development process, primarily due to the absence of a comprehensive regulatory framework. As a result, the Phase I projects, initially planned for completion by 2030, experienced substantial setbacks. A 2022 report by the Supreme Audit Office acknowledged the recent progress made to advance these projects but also identified several issues that have hindered their development. These include delays in regulatory changes, complex and time-consuming permitting processes, flawed strategic planning, and the delayed establishment of port infrastructure. As a result, the initial goal of connecting the first turbines to the grid by 2024/2025 is unlikely to be achieved.
To address the regulatory gaps, a dedicated Act on Promoting the Generation of Electrical Energy in Offshore Wind Farms (Offshore Act) was introduced in 2021 with broad political support. The new Law provided a comprehensive framework for various processes related to the construction of offshore wind farms, including on their micro siting, permitting, development, exploitation, and liquidation. One of the key provisions of the Offshore Act is the support scheme in the form of one-sided CfDs, known as the right of negative balance coverage. Under the Phase I of the Offshore Act, the most advanced projects in the pipeline could directly apply for support, with a total capacity of up to 5.9 GW. Subsequent projects are eligible to participate in non-obligatory auctions under Phase II. The energy regulator was granted new competences related to the support scheme and permitting process. The strike price was initially proposed at 302 PLN/MWh (approximately 69 EUR/MWh) but was ultimately set at 320 PLN/MWh (approximately 73 EUR/MWh)50 in a supplementary regulation by the Minister of Climate and Environment. The industry criticised the initial proposed price as insufficient to cover investment and operating costs, and the Polish Wind Power Association suggested a price of 370 PLN/ MWh (approximately 84 EUR/MWh) to reflect the rising development costs as a result of the disruptions in the global supply chains.
The Polish government issued additional regulations to further clarify the structure of concession payments by operators and supply chain reporting. The rules for participants in Phase I included the preparation of reports on their supply chain plans, which were published to support domestic value chains, improve fair competition, and encourage productive partnerships and collaborations.
The Act on Maritime Areas and Maritime Administration, which governs maritime spatial planning, was amended to include criteria for granting concessions necessary to initiate the offshore wind development processes. The assessment of projects is based on the alignment with maritime spatial planning, timeline for development and operations, financing for concession payments and investments, organizational and logistical capacity, and alignment with relevant Polish and European policies.
Maritime spatial planning
The current maritime spatial plan51, introduced in 2021, takes into consideration various environmental, economic, and military factors. It allocates approximately 1 800 km2 or just below 10 percent52 of the EEZ for offshore wind energy deployment. These areas might result in roughly 18 GW power generation capacity. The plan provides information about environmental conditions and allowed uses for different parts of the sea, which is crucial when conducting micro siting for projects. Maritime transportation is of utmost importance to the Polish economy, with major international ports in Gdańsk and Gdynia serving as major trading hubs. Military considerations also play a significant role, limiting wind farm development in certain areas. In the future, safeguarding offshore wind power plants and infrastructure will become a matter of national security.
Fishing, due to past overfishing and pollution, has diminished in economic significance, and efforts are underway to restore fish populations. While tourism is a vital use of coastal areas, sailing is less popular in the Polish Baltic Sea region due to unfavourable conditions. Artificial island construction for offshore wind farms is a permitted use. The concession competitions align with the maritime spatial plan. Overall, the development of offshore wind power enjoys considerable social and political support. Some 73 percent of Polish citizens, who participated in the YouGov survey, expressed willingness to live near an offshore wind farm against only 12 percent who would oppose it. Unlike onshore wind power, which have faced country-wide restrictions since 2016 due to local controversies, no such issues have arisen regarding offshore wind development thus far. All current offshore wind locations are situated out of sight from the shore, preserving the landscape and tourism experience.
Environmental co-existence
The permitting process for offshore wind power plants involves conducting environmental impact assessments. The results of these assessments have not faced major challenges from Polish environmental organizations, as they generally support renewable energy investments. However, opposition may still emerge for specific projects, as seen with the PV farm near the Białowieża primaeval forest or the planned pumped hydroelectric energy storage facility near Bystrzyca Kłodzka in Lower Silesia. In 2021, Grand Agro, an NGO seen by some as controversial, challenged the environmental assessment for the Baltic Power offshore wind project, leading to additional permitting delays although its campaign against the industry was ultimately unsuccessful. It is possible that future social and environmental concerns may arise, underscoring the importance of clear regulations and administrative capacity within state institutions to ensure efficient management and avoid unnecessary delays.
The process of stakeholder engagement on offshore wind energy development has been very active. Between 2016 and 2019, a total of 2,053 marine user applications were submitted during the creation of the maritime spatial plan. This period involved extensive consultations with representatives from various sectors, where one of the primary topics was the allocation of sites for offshore wind farms. In 2021, alongside the Offshore Wind Act and the maritime spatial plan, the Polish Offshore Wind Sector Deal came into force, establishing a continuous platform for collaboration among government authorities, offshore wind farm (OWF) investors, supply chain participants, scientific and research institutions, and other expert organisations, that will ensure an effective policy co-creation process of developing the offshore wind industry in Poland. As part of this agreement, a Coordination Council and six working groups were formed. One of these groups specifically focuses on stakeholder cooperation, involving fishermen, maritime transport and shipping sectors and the military, as to address the cumulative impacts of the new industry on other economic activities in the maritime sector. Currently, there are ongoing discussions aiming at enhancing the effectiveness of this agreement to ensure it meets its objectives. Additionally, there is a recognized need within the industry to update the maritime spatial plan and designate new areas for wind farms.
Grid and infrastructure development
In Poland, energy-intensive consumers are located in the south of the country, is planning to build a special north-south HVDC power bridge – a kind of highway that will allow offshore wind energy to replace conventional generation sources inland.
The technical and infrastructural capabilities of Polish actors are crucial not only for project timelines and costs but also for the degree of local content engagement. While major power-system enterprises are investors in Polish offshore projects (Phase I involved cooperation between Polish state-owned entities and international partners, and Phase II has been led by the Polish state-owned companies PGE and Orlen), the development of the offshore wind value chain has been promoted as a significant business opportunity for smaller Polish suppliers, potentially creating tens of thousands of new jobs.
One of the essential infrastructural requirements for building offshore wind plants is the availability of appropriate specialized seaports. If Polish offshore terminals are not ready in time, construction will either be delayed or based on foreign ports, leading to higher costs and negatively impacting the overall local content level of the investment. The Supreme Audit Office’s report54 highlighted that as of 2021, Gdynia was initially considered as a location for an offshore terminal, but in 2022, it was changed to Gdańsk. The report also pointed out funding challenges, as the Polish NRRP has been frozen due to the ongoing political conflict between the EU and the Polish government on rule of law issues. Although the Gdańsk offshore terminal is expected to be ready by 2025, the procurement procedure initiated in March 2022 has yet to be concluded due to the lack of interested participants. Additionally, more specialized terminals will be required later on, with plans to locate service terminals in Łeba and Ustka, which are small ports and major tourist towns.